Kos put out an excellent diary about the RNC ad buy in Montana. Kos thinks the buy demonstrates that the RNC has given up on McCain and is just trying to hang onto as much territory as possible - for propaganda purposes as much as anything else (there was a lot more red than blue on 2000 and 2004 maps). This sounds quite plausible to me (although Occam's razor would probably tell us that the RNC is just flailing around like a beheaded chicken right now). It got me thinking about numbers, so I thought I'd play "Poblano" (a game where you imagine you're Nate Silver and try to do something clever with numbers - like playing "House" with a spreadsheet). I wanted to figure out the percentage of the United States' land area that Obama might plausibly win. I will omit Alaska and Hawaii, which together comprise about 16.5% of the 50 states' land area. Here's some quick numbers:
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